The famous prayer attributed to the theologian Reinhold Niebuhr asks for the serenity to accept the things one cannot change, and the courage to change the things one can. Shrewdly, Dr Niebuhr also asked for the wisdom to know the difference.

As the tide of economic gloom rolls on, and comparisons with the 1930s grow apace, one might be tempted to fall on one's knees to seek divine assistance. But rather than asking merely for help, it might be best to repeat that ‘Serenity Prayer'. Its distinctions are ones which must be carefully drawn in present circumstances. There are things, mostly to do with the global crisis, about which we can do nothing.

There are others, some home-grown and some the result of international stresses, which can be addressed — although doing so will not be simple. Telling which is which is also not simple, but it is essential to get it right.

Our difficulties are, in fact, a subset of the global crisis which has its origins in the US mortgage lending market, and its cause in the new methods of packaging and trading such loans.

Things we did ourselves, and failed to do, have added to those difficulties. But, until the general crisis is over, the Republic’s difficulties cannot be overcome. As

yet, there is no sign of that.

Almost a year since the crisis began, the enforced rescue of the two huge government-backed lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has led most analysts to the view that things are even worse than was thought even a few months ago. The UK Chancellor, Alistair Darling, has made the same point at Westminster.

The amount of bank lending in the US is actually falling — down 9% in the three months to mid-June. The respected analysts at Lombard Street Research say this must rank as the worst credit conditions since the 1930s.

It is not at all clear how this mess will be sorted, or what the situation will be when it is.

In the view of some, a crash in China once the Olympic Games are over, leading to a rapid fall in oil prices, may be the only window of opportunity for lower interest rates and the beginning of a turn.

Like everyone else, we must accept and endure this situation. And a bit more. Some countries have no particular imbalances of their own, but they still have to ride out the global downturn.

Unfortunately, Ireland is not one of them. Much of the economic trouble was indeed generated at home. This is why Ireland will be hit particularly hard, because our own difficulties must be added to the effects of the global crisis. The obvious example is the construction boom and bust. Ireland is not unique in this. Spain and the US also seem to have built more dwellings than they require.

But Ireland had the biggest building boom of all, in terms of construction's share of national output. Its subsequent fall has a dire effect on the economic statistics and, consequently, on confidence at home and abroad.

It may be possible to do something to alleviate the worst effects of this crash. The Irish Government should heed the advice it is getting from all sides to maintain spending on the National Development Plan. But within that massive spend, there may be a case for switching to more labour-intensive projects and away from transport, where the most urgent stuff has largely been done.

That would not improve the dire growth figures. It might help employment, and perhaps prevent the construction sector from shrinking below the levels which will be required in the medium term. Even if it did, the growth figures will worsen, as the rot spreads to the rest of the economy. The decay is coming mainly from the global economy. But it will be worst in those economies with the largest borrowings — which, once again, includes us.

It has been interesting, to put it no stronger, the way the slowing of consumer spending here seems to mirror that in Britain; a country with similar habits, and similar elevated levels of debt. It goes without saying that the biggest problem, and the most worrying, is the credit crisis, and that this is an international phenomenon.

Were it not for the free flow of lending from the central banks to the banking system, we would indeed face a Great Depression.

But hundreds of billions of dollars, euro, yen and pounds from the central banks have not been enough to get lending rates between the commercial banks back to normal levels.

Again, it would be no surprise if the constraints on banks are even greater in the most indebted countries. If anything, they seem worse in Britain, but they may just have better data.

Last month, Ireland, Britain and Spain were cited by consultants Oliver Wyman as facing the biggest hit in the EU from bad loans and mortgages.

They analysed three Irish banks, AIB, Bank of Ireland and Anglo-Irish, and reckoned loan losses could hit €800m next year.

Not enough to bring down well-capitalised banks, but enough to crimp lending, never mind that the banks themselves are paying 5% to raise money. Only the ECB can do much about that.

The only place we can really help ourselves is in making sure that Ireland is ready for the recovery when it does come. The “to-do” list is well-known. Much of it — pay restraint, more competition in domestic services and energy, removing functions from incompetent parts of the public service — will be unpopular. A lot of people will have to show unexpected strength and wisdom before the things we can change are changed.

Brendan Keenan writes for the Irish Independent